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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  May 6, 2024 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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>> we are 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day on this monday. green shoots sprouting after friday's jobs report eases fears of a more hawkish fed, but morgan stanley reports is time to go defensive on the back data. meanwhile, tough words for starbucks from founder howard schultz, who says it is time for contrition and renewed focus and discipline for current management. these comments follow the disastrous earnings report last week. and an exclusive conversation coming up after the real estate company reported stronger-than-expected earnings.
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christian all brick -- ulbrich joins in just a bit. i am katie garfield in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. we have a green start to the week with the s&p 500 up about .6%. if you take a look at the nasdaq 100, we are talking about .6%. we have another big week of earnings coming up, so we will continue to watch these lines. meanwhile, on the bond market it is a quite start to the week, the 10 year yield unchanged following a big rally. we are sitting at about 4.5 percent. one stock we are keeping an eye on is apple after warren buffett praised the tech giant over the weekend. he said apple is better than american express and coca-cola.
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despite that praise, buffett revealed he cut his stake in the tech giant. he said a lot of things about several different companies. sonali: he did. when we come to apple, that was one of the biggest headlines because he did praise apple despite trimming his stake. he hinted at tax implications. if you are facing a 21% tax rate, he says your tax rate as a corporation and investor are likely to go up in the future and it does make sense to start selling more today than you would in the future, so he did hint at tax implications. apple has been on quite the ride. it has been a big boost to the portfolio since he took this stake years ago given that berkshire hathaway was not traditionally a large technology investor, yet he has loved apple and still says he loves american express and coca-cola.
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it is still likely to be one of the biggest stock holdings in the portfolio at the end of the year. he also said, on the converse side of things, the sale of paramount was his decision at the end of the day. paramount shares this morning are rising in reaction to the idea that paramount would be open to thinking through potential offers from sony and apollo global management. paramount shares still up more than 4.6%. if you look at shares over a five-year period, the stock has been down closer to 80%, so the concern here was the shift that paramount was making from traditional television to online platforms, which has been a difficult shift for and others. >> a tricky merger in a trick industry. let's talk about the cash as
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well. 180 on billion dollars and he said 200 billion dollars does not seem far away. sonali: he said they could be at 200 billion dollars in cash by the end of the year and come out when it comes to berkshire hathaway, they are making the megadeal's at times of stress. think back to 2008. in the most recent downturn, berkshire was noticeably absent. a question that pervades is does berkshire face more competition from private equity than it had in prior years? and berkshire still do massive deals moving forward under future leadership? succession was a major story at the annual meeting and a lot of credit given to the heir apparent over at berkshire hathaway who said he would be in charge of the keys and making decisions like that.
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>> time will certainly tell. its turn to the broader markets. let's pick up on that thought. when it comes to warren buffett, berkshire hathaway has a lot of cash and nowhere to go. does the average investor have the same problem? >> know. thank you for having me. i think there are still a number of attractive places to invest in this market. we focus on the seven, but there are a number of areas where you have high quality companies taking the ai story. i think there are places to go. i am not going to disagree with warren buffett. he has his own strategy that has worked brilliantly, but we like apple here. i know he does too, but i think
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you just want to hang on. manus: let's talk about that area of agreement, apple. everyone will focus on him trimming. maybe it was taking some profit, tell us about your faith in apple now. his comets were interesting after apple earnings. >> we had been trimming over the last five years because destocked got to an outsized position. as i wrote about, sometimes you think you are doing the right thing as a portfolio manager but you need to hang on, so we view apple as one of the stocks you can own for a lifetime, not just because of fundamentals but because with the commitment to buybacks they put a floor under the stock price and the latest announcement is supported by free cash flow, so we think you on this stock for the
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fundamentals, less overgrowth, but it is the defensive name now and we consider it one of our defensive holdings. that is why we continue to own it. katie: that is a fascinating point. one of the themes this year has been the subversion of what is a growth company and what is a value or tech company. when it comes to apple, one of the criticisms of the buyback is long-term shouldn't you be spending this on product development, something other than share buybacks? it sounds like if you shift how you are thinking about apple may be that is not a huge concern. nancy: i am not crazy about buybacks. i would like to see them invest in future innovation and return capital to shareholders because that is more reliable and see that dividend grow more than a
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penny a share, but it does put a floor under the price of the stock. what we heard from a separate ceo was we cannot invest for the future and be profitable. that is what we need to see from apple, innovation. tim cook has been at this for a long time. we were buying the stock in 2014 when everybody was saying it is just a handset company, but one of the things you know about tim cook is he is not a plasterer -- blusterer. he said, we have advantages that other firms do not. that is one of the other reasons the stock was rewarded. nancy: -- katie: so do not necessarily count tim cook out. let's zoom out from apple and talk about the broader stock market. looking through research this morning, you had a note from
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mike wilson saying you did look at the broader market. the place you should be is defensive sectors such as consumer staples and the economic data we are getting is mixed from the fed perspective. i would be curious to hear your take on it if you look at your portfolio now. how are you thinking about your sector allocation? nancy: we thought the economy was slowing down before we got the gdp number and we thought the labor market was softening. one of the things you have to do is know how to pivot and we think i would rather own a technology company that has continued to deliver reliable earnings growth in 2022 and 2020 for than a consumer staple trading at a similar multiple and growing in the low single
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digits, so i think some of the technology names are the new defensive's and the consumer staple names are expensive. we do on walmart and pepsi. we own these stocks for the next three to seven years. walmart has demonstrated inability to embrace digitization to their -- demonstrate an ability to embrace digitization to their advancement. katie: we are going to take a quick check on what is moving under these markets with bailey lipschultz. not a great monday for tyson foods. >> we saw stocks higher, but then you look at the analyst call. management saying it would trail with the usda was projecting.
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they said u.s. chicken production issues are not a short-term fix, so when the stock started out up a few percentage points and now dropping, the biggest drop since august, uncertainty also about the ability to sell packaged goods. think about chicken tenders and different types of breakfast meals. it seems like the stock that did close at a greater than 52 week high getting back a chunk given the uncertainty. katie: i do often think about chicken tenders. rough day for tyson. a different story when it comes to fresh pet, executing well here. bailey: the big thing is executing on their ability to focus on profitability. it is one of those companies that caters to i do not want to call it boushey -- bougie pet
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parents but it is. it is trying to sell consumers to treat their pets like humans but it does seem like it is working with stellar results. the best is ahead of the company, up about 75% in the last 12 months, so really a winning move for this company and betting on consumers continuing to spend on pets. katie: it is fascinating to see where the pockets of resilience are and clearly fresh pet found their pocket. we have not heard yet from palantir. bailey: we have seen the stock up triple digits. the focus is on artificial intelligence and ability to offset weakness for government contracts. this is a company that jumped 30% after results, options pricing in a 15% move. all eyes and ears will be on
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what management talks about around their ability to beat expectations. the sell side is ahead of what management has guided to, so beating expectations will be the narrative for all things ai. katie: definitely a high bar to try to vault over. thank you. coming up, the former starbucks ceo has a lot to say about the earnings flop. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ - [female narrator] they line up by the thousands. each one suffering with a story that breaks your heart. like ravette, who needed help, because every step brought her pain. their only hope is a ship unlike any other.
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how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. katie: former starbucks ceo
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howard schultz is urging big fixes at his company after shares plummeted following his first sales drop since 2020. he is still the fifth-largest starbucks shareholder and wrote, any company that misses badly, there must be contrition and renewed focus and discipline. own the shortcoming without excuse. joining us for more is michael intelligence. have we seen that contrition? >> i do not think so. i think there are a lot of excuses. so there was a lot of excuses. it seems there was a lot of panic, a lot of initiatives being thrown at the wall. you quoted howard and the sentence after that he talked about trying to do too much. that is what we wrote.
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howard may have read our earnings review. there is a lot of trying to draw in overnight sales and four week upgrade cycles and some of these throughput things they are talking about that we do not think are going to move the needle. i think management needs to look at the mirror and take some accountability for the numbers they posted. katie: i read the earnings review. in his post, he did not name the current ceo by name. it was not a specific call out, although he did speak to the current management. what do you think the future of this c-suite is? >> before that, let's keep it real. howard, i have a lot of respect for what he built. after he hired him, he had an investor day and outlined these plans that have been in motion
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since september 2022 and raised long-term guidance, setting him up for a difficult entrance into the business, very high expectations, so right now plans are scattered, many of them contradictory. they are talking about china and trying to turn things around but they want to keep premium positioning and move into lower tiered markets. those things do not drive, so come because of that, i could see activist involvement in this stock. katie: it is going to be fascinating to follow. i'm sure we will speak with you about this soon. take a look at shares now, down about 23% year to date for starbucks, definitely a rocky year so far. let's welcome back nancy tengler.
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when it comes to starbucks and other consumer focused businesses that have reported in the past couple weeks, i keep hearing the word transition and how this is a transitory year and a lot of blaming of the macroeconomic environment. how are you reading these reports? how much should we stock up -- chalk up to the macroeconomic environment? nancy: i am working on a piece now titled "and you thought golf was frustrating." this is a company specific problem. it feels reminiscent of disney, where you have the iconic founder who leaves and comes back and now he is undermining his hand-picked successor. you said, starbucks aside, we have not figured out what we are
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going to deal. mcdonald's reported disappointing earnings. chipotle, in our 12 best ideas portfolio, was able to raise price and volume. it matters what you own in this environment. the consumer is being discreet and careful in their purchases but still spending. we heard that from amazon. consumers were spending but becoming more price-sensitive. you need to be with great management teams ahead of the trend and not behind it. starbucks is behind. katie: consumers are still spending. take a look at fresh pet earnings, a strong quarter even though it is expensive pet food. looking through your list, we are talking about ceos out there. when it comes to apple, you
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would not underestimate tim cook. when it comes to tesla, that is another ceo that is dangerous to underestimate. nancy: and i have done it, to my own peril many years ago when he was sleeping on the factory floor and his lieutenants were quitting right and left. i thought, this is no longer investing, this is gambling. i think what i have learned about elon musk's he thrives in chaos, the kind of chaos the rest of us run away from so you have to really dig in. this company is trading as an electric vehicle company, but look at the business which is utility grade battery storage and that business is growing faster and is more profitable than the rest, so we think the company looks different in the next three to five years.
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robotaxis is not really up my alley. it is happening. the question is how long it will take for the rest of the world to adapt. katie: also on your list you have uber, stepping up to the plate in a couple days time. it has been a strong run for uber. do you think the company can keep that momentum going? nancy: i do. recently, it has been weak and it is on the anticipation. the ceo is ahead of the curve. it is growing. we will see where we go from here. i would not buy in advance of earnings, but if you get weakness, depending on the issue
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, if it is a starbucks epic minutes, then no. if it is really from the market, i think you step in because they are a long terms -- a long-term earnings growth story. katie: always great to speak with you. still ahead, we will take a look at the companies making the most social bus today in our social climber segment. pittsburgh. ♪
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>> is time now for social climbers making waves on social media but hood has been warned and may face an enforcement action tied to his cryptocurrency dealings. the result could be an
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injunction. robinhood says it is cooperating with the investigation. despite problems on earthly terrain, boeing will attempt to send humans into space. after years of delays, the plane manufacturer will launch two nasa astronauts to the international space station later today. if the launch is successful, boeing could challenge space x, which has been very nasa astronauts -- varying -- ferrying nasa astronauts. box office sales have remained a third below pre-pandemic levels. analysts say it is possible that no film tops $1 billion this summer. that would be the first time that has happened in over 20 years. the biggest challenge for theaters is getting film buffs off of their couches. you can follow the latest company buzz on your bloomberg terminal.
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take a quick look at markets. the s&p 500 is holding onto those gains of about .6%. coming up, a global real estate giant posted a strong first quarter. we will speak to the company's ceo next. ♪ ning here. productivity is growing exponentially. that's because cdw configuration specialists are deploying fleets of microsoft surface devices. built in security, simplified management and flexibility help streamline busy work, which means everyone can get more done. make amazing happen. microsoft and cdw.
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katie: the international real estate giant jll posting a strong start to 2024. the complaint handily beating estimates and generating over $5 billion in revenue. joining us now in an exclusive interview is christian ulbrich, the jll ceo. great to have you with us. adjusted eps coming in at $1.78, the estimate was for $.88 so i will go ahead and call that a beat. what drove that? christian: we worked very hard last year to increase
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productivity in our platform, and we were not very optimistic about interest rate declines. so overall market expectation was ended on more muted than the average was. for that we prepared. and we had a pretty good performance on the top line. if you put these two things together, you can deliver those types of numbers. katie: it sounds easy when you put it like that. i think more companies to do that, but let's talk about the different business segments. my understanding is you have office leasing down so i am curious where you are growing your other businesses. where is the most growth coming from right now? christian: the strongest growth is coming into our work dynamics business and our property management business where we had a 12% topline growth and also strong performance on the bottom line due to the productivity measures we did over the last 18 months. and then capital markets came in slightly stronger than we would
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have expected. we beat market very strongly on that one. that obviously helped. and the leasing markets were kind of slightly patchy around the globe. but overall, the performance was better than last year. so the combination has worked. katie: patchy around the globe. let's talk a little bit about where you are seeing different trends. i spoke to andy a couple weeks ago, and he made the points that when it comes to return to office, the u.s. is behind the rest of the world. so if you can give us color on how that is translating into leases, that would certainly be interesting. christian: yeah, the u.s. is indeed very slow in returning to the office, but obviously we are now having a very low base. on that low base, we had an increase in our office leasing activities in the u.s. by just about double-digit percentage numbers. so we had 14% increase in u.s. office leasing, 12% increase in
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apex optics leasing, and europe was a decline with -8%. with the bases low enough, a tick up can deliver a nice increase. katie: let's talk about another u.s. pacific dynamic going on, and that is the federal reserve. you saw the rate cut expectations get pushed out further and further into the year. i wonder how that is affecting commercial real estate and how property managers are behaving in light of that. christian: the sensitivity to the u.s. interest rates is remarkable. when we saw interest rates coming down at the beginning of the year until about mid february, we had a significant pickup in activity. the moment interest rates went up again, that slowed down very significantly. you can see with every kind of headline coming up, the positive or negative, we can feel that immediately in our business. hopefully people can come to
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terms that interest rate cuts will only come later this year and they will not put their hands into their pockets for the next six months. hopefully we see an ongoing pickup in dynamics now because people will have to transact at some point. whether interest rates are 25 basis points higher or lower should not make a difference if you have the right assets to deal with. katie: people will have to transact at some point. let's talk in the namor about that and when they will be forced to. i am curious what you see when you look at maturities, and helping for is the refinancing outlook for the people that you have to refinance right now? christian: there are a lot of maturities to come. obviously, it depends on the quality of the buildings. as you would expect, for higher buildings, it is easier to finding refinancing at acceptable levels versus more commodity type buildings.
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and then it depends on the asset classes. multi, great data centers -- multi family, great data centers, logistics centers are being refinanced easily, but if you have an office or something in the wrong location, that is tough. rates are really high, margins are really high, so that would bring some disturbance into the market. but that also brings opportunity. katie: so you make two interesting points. one when it comes to the different types of quality of buildings and data centers. retail and apparel makers -- you have high-end consumers still doing well and spending and the luxury names doing well. mullins continues to be resilient and it is the middle that falls out. are you seeing something similar in the property market? christian: not as strongly as
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what you just said forget it in the property market, it is the high-end that is performing well. the rental rates for best in class office buildings are still rising all across the globe despite raising vacancy rates, which is unusual, but we have seen that the last 24 months. it just shows that the best companies are trying to pick up the best space to create an outstanding experience for their employees. we should not forget the employee market is still very strong across the globe, but most notably in the u.s., and that makes a difference if you can provide great space to your people. katie: definitely a good point. the labor market is still very hot, very competitive. let's talk a little more about data centers because that feels like it has emerged on the investment side as an ai plate. data centers seeing a boost for that. -- ai play, data centers seeing a boost from that.
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christian: it is the hottest asset class people are trying to get into because demand is really high and will continue to be high. when you believe in ai, the demand will go up. the shortage is access to the grid. but otherwise, people are really keen to could into it and that will be a play for the next five to 10 years. katie: yeah, it will be fascinating to follow. i am sure we will be speaking about data centers a lot more in the years to come. let's end on your business because it is interesting, you had an upgrade from raymond james about a month ago talking about your net debt to ebitda ratio and they wrote that it puts you in a position to deploy capital to share repurchases and acquisitions. are you taking a look at any m&a right now? christian: we are always looking at what is going on in the market. for a long time, we thought pricing was too high. we saw pricing to come to a more
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attractive position to us. the teams are pretty active analyzing, and hopefully we will identify something which beats the alternative which is always buying back our chairs. katie: we will keep in touch on that point. really enjoyed the conversation. our thanks to christian ulbrich of jll global. let's get a check on the markets right now. >> it is a positive day for stocks today. a lot of optimism related to rate cuts later this year. the s&p 500 is up by 0.6%. also the index is trading slightly above its 50 day moving average. of course, falling yields and falling u.s. dollar are also supported stock prices. when it comes to crude, we see oil is moving slightly higher. today brent crude is trading at $83 a barrel.
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however, this is first of all because saudi arabia raised prices for its customers in asia, which means the country is bullish on the crude market. and geopolitical tensions are also bullish for crude. however, if we look at traders and options market for crude, we don't see traders are concerned about a possible upside surprise in the could market -- in the market. this shows options for brent crude and now they have dropped to the lowest level since march so volatility is moving lower. let's get back to the earnings season because it has been an interesting one. so this chart shows the average outperformance of the stock, which posted better-than-expected results. we see that about 400 companies reported earnings so far. more than 79% of them posted better-than-expected earnings. however, the average stock in the s&p 500 was not able to
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outperform the s&p 500 index. this is the lowest level since the last quarter of 2020. and of course, this is all about guidance. we see that about 18% of companies posted better-than-expected results. now let's take a quick look at what hedge funds have been doing. last week, we sigh hedge funds turned bullish on the consumer discretionary sector. this is still the most net sold sector for hedge funds year-to-date. despite the weaker the next good results for companies like starbucks and mcdonald's, hedge funds started buying those stocks. consumer discretionary followed by health care, industrials, and information technology, the most bought sectors. on the flipside, communication services followed by consumer staples financials, and utilities staples, financials, -- staples, financials, and
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utilities. katie: we will speak with arvind krishna coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ - super excited to open up my diploma from southern new hampshire university. ♪ ♪ - i'm nervous, i'm excited. ♪ ♪
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katie: it is time now for our daily wall street me conversation, and today we are focusing on how ibm is advancing generate of ai. arvind krishna is the ibm chairman and ceo come and he spoke with david westin yesterday in los angeles. arvind: exactly a year i remember right, there will be an answer on what is the next product, and since then, the
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excitement and getting the technology deployed, asking for expertise and getting projects going, i think all of that has been wonderful. our inception today put to business exceeds $1 billion. that is good and speaks to the excitement. our clients are excited about what it does for them. you can see it for experience, programming, as well as improving the enterprise. all of this put together is really exciting and how our diane sare embracing generative ai. david: the increase input to be -- in productivity come up are you seeing that in your customers -- productivity, are you seeing that in your customers, and how do you measure that? arvind: i think we are seeing both. that is not the primary reason. the primary reason our clients are excited is getting business
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done while holding costs somewhat in control, so it is more about a revenue generator t productivityhan -- than productivity alone. it is making you more productive and that is what is exciting. think about customer experience. you may save a dollar on somebody's time in a call center. but if you can make the end client more satisfied, they got the answer quicker, got a better answer, are they likely to come back and do repeat business? that is far more exciting. david: there is a lot about how generative ai will grow and evolve. you have stake your claim on an open architecture including for ibm but also with meta and your ai and alliance -- and your alliance. arvind: it is always about how you drive innovation. in the case where people worry about what is the fair use, the copyright, the ip protection, we have both of those going on.
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in order to drive open, what we are doing is driving some of our base models as meta has done and putting them out under an open license, which means people are free to build upon it and what they build upon is theirs and they don't have to give it back to us. you use the ad skills to the ai model and now you can say it is now mine, what is left and that makes good investing to the enterprise. david: so really pursuing enterprise based ai. does that get around the challenges of intellectual property? there are issues in consumer facing about copyrights. is it the way that works for you? the customer is using their own data to educate the model. arvind: absolutely. you talk about open right now. also today and tomorrow, a
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really innovative technology called instruct lab allows our clients to take our or somebody else's model, take it in the enterprise, create it with their own methodology, layer it on top, and it is theirs. it does not need to come back to us. that gets rid of the question of copyright and fair use. david: how does ai alliance fit with possible government regulation? we have some moves in europe. there is an executive order in the united states the biden administration put out. how do those two things fit together? you talk about standards in the ai alliance. arvind: they are worried about innovation, competition, safety, and regulations. when you take those three together, they come together to help you foment innovation. so it helps the regulators think
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about what is going on here. there are some guardrails that are always put but in my experience, open technologies have been safer and more secure than closed technologies. david: is one of the risks with the emphasis on open architecture that some of the big guys get an advantage and have an entrenched position? arvind: when you have a wall guard, have the area been more innovative or less and a beta? -- or less innovative? that helps you create more competition. does it avoid regulatory lock-in? likely. but is that good for all of us? david: are you prone regulation? arvind: i am pro regulation as long as it is a light touch and it allows innovation to happen. i absolutely am pro regulation. if regulation tries to reduce
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innovation, i think that is a problem. katie: that of course is arvind krishna, the ibm chairman and ceo, and wall street me coast david westin. tomorrow we will hear from the cofounder and ceo of apollo global management, marc rowan. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪
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katie: apple is expected to review an array -- reveal an array of products tomorrow at and out of the ordinary event not usually fitting in with the tech giant's usual schedule of releases. our guest joins us now with more
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detail. apple let it loose here. what is the expectation of what we will hear? >> sure. thanks for having me on the show. a couple of things. the big deal with much anticipation and fanfare is the new ipad coming out. it has been a wild since they refreshed the ipad. a couple innovations are coming out. an oled ipad pro possibly. and the other is an apple chip. katie: so not necessarily new products but some updates and some ai additions to the ipad. how meaningful is that? when you think about this company and maybe some of the struggles apple has had a year to date in the stock market, is this enough to breathe momentum into the shares? >> we have to think of it in a couple of ways. if we think about the year as it relates to apple, apple has not had a story to date relative to
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up meta and google have done. this might be the coming-out party for apple to talk about their story in detail. tim cook mentioned it briefly through the earnings call. if the ipad is the first device with an ai enable chip, we could see the iphone possibly having something later. katie: so maybe we will see of course apple's big entrance into ai. but practically speaking from a user standpoint, what does ai on the ipad potentially look like? >> it is still fairly early. on device ai is still relatively new. the use case for on device consumer ai is still relatively new. a couple of things that may happen is you might have a much easier application experience. nothing that i don't know is how they will monetize that. does that mean more premium apps sales or new apps sales --
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premium app sales or new app sales? that is part of the revenue growth stream for apple. katie: really appreciate it, previewing the apple event. meanwhile, we will take a quick look at some of the stocks hitting highs and lows today. let's kick off with garman hitting a 52-week high after three analysts raised their price target on the company by an average of 15%. the company reported strong earnings last week, and that is good for another 0.2% gain today. nothing huge here but still another green day for garmin if that holds. psg&e, the price target was raised by 11% since it reported earnings last week. not too much movement, another quiet day, but trending in the right direction, currently up
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half of a percent or so. let's take a look at the broader markets right now. another update in the markets. the essen -- another up day in the markets. the s&p 500 up. a strong week last week after a jobs report that client and some of the hawkish fears about what this meant for the fed so you can see some breathing room in the s&p 500. same thing if you look at big tech. the nasdaq 100 higher by 0.6% for your big tech stocks and it is a quiet day in the bond market. the 10 year yield currently flat on the session. we saw a huge rally to the end of last week. the 10 year yield currently hanging out around 4.5%. we have a lot of big options coming up when it comes to treasuries so we will see how long that can actually hold. coming up on "bloomberg technology," a guest joins
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caroline hyde up next but that does it for "bloomberg markets." i'm katie greifeld, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ♪ caroline: i'm caroline hyde in bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. ed ludlow is off. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, 80% of s&p 500 companies now with results. as warren buffett cuts his stake, we will go to an apple

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