they will talk and it will not go any further, but even after the 14th year, when crimea was already annexed, when part of the territory in donbas was annexed, we still did not resort to a comprehensive study of russia, and this is really us, this is our first very serious recalculation , on the other hand, the russians studied ukrainian society, studied up to and including the 13th year and after the 14th, but the plus point is that at... all at the same time, they did not take into account, they did not understand ukrainian society, and it was a formal study which actually these conclusions about ukrainian society, its readiness to fight, were constantly adjusted, and in fact , only what the superiors wanted to see reached the top, in fact, the conclusions were directly opposite, our chaotic democratic principles, they took the readiness to fight for their independence as a weakness.

that is, it is also a plus, they studied, we did not study and did not see the threat, they studied, but, well, they did not want to see the real results. what concerns russian society now and what we have to understand and what we constantly prove to our western partners, the problem of the russian-ukrainian war and the problem of russia for ukraine and the world, it is not exhausted by the putin regime, it is... it is rooted in such deep, immanent features of russian society, replacing putin's surname with mishustin or patrushev or sobyanin will not even bring anything fundamentally new, it will not make ukrainians and other neighbors of the russian federation feel completely safe, that russia is predictable. and a non-aggressive country, on

alas, this will not happen, you and i have actually returned to russia, as it was known all the years of its existence in one form or another, as a threat, and accordingly, we, as ukrainian society, as a state, and our partners in the european union , and not only that, they must, well, they must accept this, this plume of the 90s, this raid, this unnatural situation in which russia was. it has finally passed and we will return everything back to normal. russia is a threat. mr. oleksandr, i would like to assess one thing based on your experience: now the russian military-political leadership is introducing a kind of new social contract, that is, i had the opportunity to see certain studies by the russians there, and they say that the essence of this new contract should be ... that

the society or the population of the russian federation perceives the war itself as a commonplace, that this is a normal component, and in order to limit the impact of the war on the so-called demobilized population, that is, in fact, the population that does not want to sacrifice anything, but it should not be touched, the war must remain such a direction that does not affects the population of the russian federation, and thus... it is possible to prepare the conditions for a long-term war of attrition without any particular risks for the russian political regime. i would like to ask you how effective this concept is, how viable it is, whether we should perceive it as, well, this is such a new systemic risk, as in general this new social contract, although i do not completely agree that it is such a social contract , how to treat him in these current realities. yes, this is a very multidimensional question,

you put it, it is true, this is the main dilemma of the russian regime, that is, for their survival, they have, must maintain this eternal war, and they cannot return even on february 23, 24, 22, but at the same time they have adhere to that social contract. which they introduced themselves, starting back in the early 2000s, that is, you don't get involved in politics, we support you with such a high standard of living. after the 14th year, they also, they raised the rates, i mean the regime, that is, they said: we we add a little grandeur to you, and you don't actually feel it either, it started crawling after the annexation of crimea. occupation and

attempts to occupy donbas, but after the start of a full-scale invasion, they actually this social contract, which they themselves introduced and violated. that is, they, that is, the population does not get involved in politics, they keep their part of the contract, but life worsens and not just life worsens, but this same population is sent to die, is sent, is mobilized forcibly and is sent, well, actually to the trenches, and this with on the one hand, on the other hand, this population is needed, since the blitzkrieg did not work out, it must be somehow motivated. in addition to economic incentives, we need some incentives, well , ideological, intangible ones. and here is this dilemma, this so-called svo actually

puts people in prison for the war, on the other hand, how will you ideologically motivate people to go to some svo. and we really see this in our research, we conduct... on an ongoing basis research in russia, of course we ask questions about the perception of the war by the russians and their understanding of the goals of this war, and here indeed, the russians have this kind of dissonance, because we constantly see this dilemma of russian propaganda, the russian regime and the evolution of russian propaganda, and even z-patriots, you know, the nuclear electorate, who are there for putin and for victory, they get confused. .. so, why, well, this, it all started, as a rule, it boils down to, well, we stand against the west, the west, but this dilemma, that is, on the one hand, it is the svo, on the other hand, it is a people’s war, for survival in russia, it really is, we see, and the regime

is trying to balance, between material things incentives to take part in this war, and not just sufficiency. real incentives, and you mentioned research on the territory of the russian federation, you them, i consider them quite unique, because you are looking for such ways of obtaining information, data that other social services, in particular from ukraine , cannot do it, you did data for the results of the 22nd year, you had the intention of a plan to assess the history and state of russian society based on the results of the 23rd year, did you manage to do it... based on the results of the 23rd year and what are the current well, maybe the changes are so noticeable that you can tell? well, first of all, what did you start your question with, regarding the new normality, the new routine, war as

a norm, the routinization of war, this really happened, and it really affects the stability of the regime on the one hand, because when we put in at the end of the 22nd year and... they asked the russians: name what worries you in the first place, it was the war, well, they called themselves the ssvo, the war, it doesn’t matter, it’s really 50% of the first elections, they called the war without thinking, and they called economic problems twice as often, now in these one and a half years of our observations , the numbers are diametrically opposite, economic problems came to the fore, to the fore... there was a request to putin, as the elected president, to solve the economic and financial problems of russians, the successful completion of the so-called svo is not called in the first place, it is one of the top five er, well , problems, tasks for putin to solve

it, and we see that the regime also understands this, they also have their studies, of course well and they are now also trying... to solve this question, how, if on the one hand there are economic problems, there is a deterioration in the financial condition of the russians, on the other hand, the war can no longer be an excuse for these problems, how to explain to the russians what must be tolerated, and we see that another factor is used, the factor of terrorist attacks, the factor of fear and the fact that the war is coming to your home, the step of city hall is only one of the first steps, this month more than 250,000 times with this topic appearing in the russian zmi, that is, you and i are right here a month has passed since the date of this terrorist attack, it was the top five topic and top five term in

the russian media for these months, these weeks, only these serious floods and complete incompetence, as always, of the russian authorities in their guise . it slightly balanced the discourse and what was discussed in the russian media sphere, but nevertheless we see that... every day, in fact, the russians reported that they exposed that group, this group was exposed, icons with explosives from european countries, which of course were stuffed in ukraine, today in in volgograd, it seems, in volgograd, as if another 17-year-old terrorists were exposed and so on and so forth, that is, now the russian regime is trying to find an answer to the fact that... on the one hand, yes, war is routinized, war is the norm, but on the other hand, how then to explain why life deteriorates, if everything

is according to plan, if we win, if the west is afraid of us, then why do we live so badly, and here they go back to the years 99-2000 to the factor and map of terrorism, and mr. oleksandr, then the question arises whether this is the whole story is related to the internal tightening of the nuts due to... precisely the threat of domestic terrorism, does it somehow affect the mood, relatively speaking, of the russian elites, if we are talking about such a category, that is, or the russian ruling clan leadership, or is there a certain tension there, because linguistically speaking, it seems that last year you said that you should not expect any changes or contradictions in the elites, in what direction is this situation developing now, because why are they asking? after the prigozhin riot there was silence, here are the reports from yesterday or the day before yesterday that

they arrested one of the deputy ministers of defense there, and i think that this is a sign of what, what trend, because it was not for nothing, they probably took on shoigu's entourage, are there any nuances that we need to know and take into account? well, there are two important factors, or three, which still leave me pessimistic that this... there is such a significant split. first, we still have little information, we remember when this information appeared, you know, it is purely information, there is a connotation, its evaluation, yes, some emotional coloring, but when the information just appeared that this timur ivanov for the minister of defense, was detained, it was pure information, that is , everyone was in a stupor, i mean the russian propaganda media there, the media in general. the russians, they did not understand how to present it, that is, he was simply detained, it is not yet clear, he is being taken here and there, that's all

, and now it is not yet clear how they will promote it, and so far even we see only assumptions from different sides, but there is no, you know, such a general line, this is the first, that is, we need more information, more understanding, which narratives will choose russian propaganda, secondly, putin, so to speak... was elected, it is his prerogative to propose a new composition of the government and a new, uh , new heads of these departments, respectively, in principle, this can be presented as a personnel planned rotation and send the shoigu to some the state emergency service, their counterpart, is still somewhere. and the third, ah, a very important position, that is, what exactly did this timur ivanov do. he was engaged in construction, construction in all ages and in all countries was a very sweet position, and it is

really without exaggeration billions of dollars, he was already involved, so to speak, in reconstruction in the occupied territories, in the same mariupol and not only, the quartering of soldiers, these are billions of billions of dollars that are actually not accounted for, you can say, well, war, here the coefficients are increased, a state secret, so... for now i would i didn't call it a split of the elites and something very significant, we need more information, and again, if we wanted to replace shoi -shoiga, then in principle just the reason, i.e. the re-election of putin and reformatting of the government, this is quite a legitimate one, legitimate a reason and a legitimate date for this, as regards the business elites, as regards... the inner circle, we see that it actually, well, crystallized, it is actually

unchanged, there they are trying to show, as it were, the fresh blood of this aptia aladdinov of the ministry of defense and that's what they call him, well, apparently one of the alternatives to kadyrov. about something new, like the new head of chechnya, or maybe some watcher from the federal center, but it is still too early to talk about it. we do not see a fundamental split yet, and it will be serious influence how putin can or cannot expand his plateau of so-called stability after prigozhin's rebellion and after his so -called re-election, because the fact that now it seems that in russian society there is no

very serious protest mood or any serious speeches. or some excesses, this in no way means that there will not be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and the reason for this can be anything, again, due to the fact that the kremlin regime putin cannot explain and cannot predict for society when all this will end, and why, if everything is going according to plan, why is the life of russians getting steadily worse. and why, for example, for example, there may be the next wave of mobilization, we again have to address this factor as well: 74% of russians, this is generally across all generations, or if we take the generation of 18-30 years old, that is, who will primarily be to develop, 84 among them, among this age group, against the second mass wave of partial

mobilization or mobilization, this will also be a very important factor of stability. mr. oleksandr, thank you very much for your work your ratings, for the time you gave to our broadcast and our viewers. let me remind you that it was oleksandr shulyuga, the head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, we can already see this, a non-governmental organization that analyzes what is happening in russia, and further we will talk about how we should confront this reality that has created, or partly created by russian. federation, which is the most vulnerable in the russian concept of this systemic distortion of the world, we will talk about this after the advertising and information pause. there are discounts on hepargin - 15% in psarynsky, pam and oskad pharmacies. there are discounts on vizyn, 20% in

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drone attacks on kyiv and other cities of ukraine, drone attacks on moscow and... russian cities. analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. the country should get the right to start negotiations on joining the eec. vitaly portnikov and guests of the project: we are bored because there is nothing to fight about. let's invent, help to understand the present and predict the future. trump's second presidency will be for the world terrible a project for those who care and think. political club. every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. the premium sponsor of the national team represents. united by football, stronger together. verdict with serhiy rudenko, from now on in a new

two-hour format. even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests. and experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion at any time of the day with the help of a telephone survey, turn on and be included, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, every day, on weekdays from 8 p.m. to 22 for espresso. we continue our war and weapons program, and now we are joined by hryhoriy lyubovets, one of the heads of the center of communication and content security, experts. all of this center, by the way, received the ivan franko prize for the work on how to protect oneself and the country in the conditions of totalitarian information confrontation, this work, a monograph, by the way. well, extremely deep, which assesses the risks of the modern world. mr. grigory, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you. to each other, good day. with the previous guest

, we talked about what is happening in russia that they have, relatively speaking, a new social contract there, although i know that you do not support this word social contract in relation to russia, but in any case, i would like to hear your assessment of what is happening now in... the russian federation at the current stage, and what should we oppose from our side to those concepts that are now trying to develop in the russian federation under the leadership of this military-political clique? it must be said here that this topic is huge, but i will try to be specific and precise. the first thing for me to pay attention to is to analyze. the putin regime on video information, or on the content that they provide, it's very

unpleasant and practically, the kind of thing that works in reverse, all our understanding that analysis is the basis of what we see, practically does not work with this. . regime, why? because they have created an industry that visually makes the reality they talk about, and the real processes practically work in the other direction, so the terms: social contract, society, state, these are all not about putin's russian federation. many terms, practically, with which we operate here, and this is exactly our cognitive trap, i.e. learning processes from

inadequate tools, you ask a funny question, how and what to do about it, well, first of all, understand and accept what you did yesterday the european parliament in umo. the russian federation did not hold presidential elections, they were recognized as illegitimate at the level of the european parliament. prior to this, parye, almost before the new year, said that after march 17 there would be no legitimate government in the russian federation. what does it mean that there is no legitimate authority? so, everyone institutions are inadequate to international law. and we will remember. the putinites themselves abandoned international law as a basis for relations with the world several years ago, but

they themselves demand that all countries follow this law. this paradox practically shows the scale of the problem you are asking about. therefore , you and i cannot tell about her in 10 minutes, you understand. if there are questions, i will try to answer them. well, that is, as i understood, we are now trying to analyze russia from our coordinate system, and russia has already imposed another model of the world, and in fact, we are forced to act differently. then the question arises, what should we analyze in the actions of the russian federation, and most importantly, how can we counteract this russia or the russian corporation in the inf'. in this regard , you really mentioned the word corporation very correctly, i would refer everyone to

the scientific works, by the way, very powerful works, by dmytro shusharin, he is a muscovite, but not a putinite, he is a scientist, he is such an outstanding personality, and he wrote several works enough čných, but very perceptible and simple, it is a pleasure to read them, he tells what the modern regime is, modern muscovy, as we say in our center, and it shows why and what directions of interaction with this state are inadequate to all practices that exist in the modern, international world. almost yesterday, not the prime minister, but the minister of foreign affairs of great britain, cameron, announced that he and in... great britain

cannot return to international relations with putin's russian federation, practically cameron in his mistake 14- th year corrects now, but most importantly, again great britain for the first time raises the regime of clarity in relation to the putin regime, absolute in absolute that this substance is not a treaty. it is not a system of international relations, so it must be, well, we are already saying, dismantled, then, mr. grigory, the question arises, relatively speaking, there is a corporation russia is governed by an authoritarian regime, it has developed its concepts of changing the world order and there is a democratic world and there is ukraine, which must develop optimal countermeasures.

so i would like to hear from you what is in ours assets that allow, well, to really provide a real counterbalance, and maybe even outplay the russians there on the informational field, including on the military field? here i would say that, first of all, i did not agree on the corporation, the corporatization of the population, which was carried out quite technologically. led to the fact that there, that is, in russia, in the conditional russian federation, there is no society, it is difficult to understand, but it is so, because each social group has been given its own, as they say, functional cell, and they fulfill it, under pressure, under, by the way, genocidal behavior, the putinites

introduced. murderous behavior not only in the occupied territories of ukraine, they also use it in the territory of the russian federation. it is very accurately shown in these natural or climatic disasters, when water flooded entire regions, and that practically the central government and local government do little for people. here is an example. when practically with their population, the putinites do not behave like the government, not like the representatives, let's say, of these social groups, so the topic is precisely that this is a corporate corporation, which operates only with the function of pressure, intimidation and survival, you show it in front of you, and this is the reality... which is difficult

to hide, but very interesting options, as they explain it, we don't have time here now, that's another topic, but what i am leading to, i am leading to the fact that you are asking what to do and why we, ukraine really has the potential and perspective, to teach our partners, to understand what is happening there and to understand what they are preparing, one of... them positions , they are not going back, they are preparing the whole world for this of the future, which will operate by force, and force will supplant international law and, in general , law and humanity as the basis of relations between people, that is, the topic of depopulation, the topic of humanity - this is practically the vision of ukraine, ukraine is now in the line of fire. shows not

only prowess, heroism and such honorable behavior, it also shows an example to the whole world that our dying soldiers show a higher, higher category of humanity, because they save with their lives not only their fellow citizens, not only the settlements where they fight, but they practically save ukraine. as environment, space and space of world statehood, that is why ukraine has both doctrinal advantages and visionary advantages , just the ability to hold this civilizational basis of humanity and peace on a global scale, and i would very much like to draw your attention to the fact that these are high, as the pathetic

terms say. .. now these terms are practical, so...