the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, the welcome to was a part treated entire tree total security or additions for peace. a last thing, settlement of the premium conflict with require difference given, takes from each of the parties. but 1st, they would probably have to part with the own sense of righteousness does the historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this. to discuss that i'm now joined by jessica roberts emeritus professor of history of the university college park. professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal pleasure to talk to you. but on top of that,

i'm far to in the some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. where do you think we are in uh in this the battle of what stage? the conflict tests taken? i think um my, my, my current phase over and we're in a very dangerous not much. yeah. and the danger roy is, this is the same thing. you said last time we talked the way it's actually i think it's for districts, god bless you have more time just yes because the closer but you crank comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is again about powerful um, extreme, his voice is uh, becoming so it is quite possible that that deal that we may see some extreme actions. true, some postop, ukraine's defense. and then obviously that would be a danger of escalation arising out those actions. what do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west?

because it is clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. but what about the west? well, i mean, thought, oh, the talk of the moment is the introduction of western troops in some phone. that issue seems to be on the agenda again. there's also talk about not know slice ons. yeah. old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which yeah. west the latest, the refuse to contemplate of that, that time. but that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more and we talk about seriously and, and that'd be more multiple patch of sex. now. dunphy the intention of those kind of actions troops on the boots on the ground or some kind of um, app our intervention. it one bates, us a lot of precipitate waterboard roster. that won't be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know. because obviously russia, i don't think will, will allow those that those actions you, i'd wonder if,

if there was some truth on the ground wherever you crying that will be attacked by russia. and the same goes for a western ethel's involvement. now, uh, something like this was contemplated 2 years ago, but as you say, it says to have more precious power. i'm all home. i mean, it does have, have more precious power. i'm on people at large and why would that be the case? because i mean, it's pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army 2 years ago, the presuppositions were defeated, the to say the least. well, it certainly doesn't have in the purchasing public opinion in the west. the old, if the older public opinion died. so we have, you know, it's just suggest that, you know, pop popular opinions, moving in the direction of a why, from one direction of peace in simple some kind of a compromise based on what the nights. so particular western countries to do to do something rack those lines just you, it's ok to get more involved threatening cause it's still been

a no most kind of like out this the popular opposition, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. so how strong are these voices in favor of direct tensional it's, it's difficult to say how many did that does beside the law of them at the moment? i mean, they're out there on concert their accounts, voices and, but i, you know, i think so, i think it was, we might assist a whole ton of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of, you know, persistent escalation, one escalation off to the other, so they've done it so often it's almost become the actual so i think i, i, i'll be, i'll be shocked but won't be surprised if i types of escalators that do you take this escalation as i calculated tactic in other words, when people raise a bit and see, do they actually understand, are they conscious of what they're doing and you know, they possible reply for the i, i think is it, it's possibly

a calculated tactic. but i think it's also an emotional advice talk to because they've taught themselves into a position, but i basically sums that are right retro it, i really believe that if they lose, do you cry new for us, you wins. and the ukraine is going to be the end of the western world as we know it, you know, if i wanted to sound like, you know, it won't know, it won't know, it won't happen. and that's important that we don't to be done actually poly into that, that, that disco. so no, no, do you train your train? what would be a huge blow tonight? so at the west to west stage, it would be critical be cried before highs of prices rise. not but no i, i think the west of all just we know at night. so we are blessed in palace of i think what will remind, unless the wall goes on and on. yes. and russia kind of tried saving multi plan to frank rush. it comes to occupy the whole deep, right. and then the wall, continuation of yeah. and that kind of extreme situation. yeah. that then possibly we are looking at the a much more laptop elliptic outcome. let's discuss something that you and the

number of other western schoolers propose to myself, and that is a compromise to this war. in fact, you suggested in one of your recent articles that budget reports and could stop this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraine's membership of mater. why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call? so it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, and the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement, then that you've got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of what's left of the ukraine started off to the war, right? that's the 1st, but it's got that the 2nd part is that night. so on the west of the politically and retire, there's hardly a what find it very, very difficult to difficult to back away from accepting you, trying into nathan members and even even under conditions dictated by russia.

that's the 2nd. and the 3rd thing um yep. strategically having ukraine in they say what type of advantages from the west, and by the view, it would mean that you have your trade in lights. i was left to the west, a new crime, presumably what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on, with russia. ok, this process would be a 3 militarized zone dominated by c. there's no nuclear weapons, all kind of restrictions, but nevertheless, you'd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint. actually the public folks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west united states and i talked to it except such a deal. now it kept mentioning, this phrase, ukraine or what's left of it. and i think that's the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that the, what's, what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and west and security of parameter will lie, whether it's formal or informal, and clearly a must go,

is interested in pushing it further into ukraine. but i'm not sure if the wants to push it as far as, let's say, western ukraine of its very hostile and add to russian population. now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary eclipse live organically for, if there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. i think as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime it until the default before additional provinces. and that in any way, that's the only option that leads to call and fost rush. why is that this guy rush, those, those territories apart also, but above a problem that's all right in the house, you choose your dad. so that's that, that, that, that, that's, that's, that's the minimum. how far you go beyond that?

yeah, it depends on, on auto, on the war. okay. some people argue that, that maybe you should go as far as hawk of as far as a desa problem with that is yes, that may will, in a way that may, will be a natural cause historical cultural political badly. but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied, talk of down to the end, the end of the desa. okay. but the bottom line is, i, i don't see russia expanding any further into your cry done under the, in the book. now it also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine and it's western beckers, would have to give the quote, cost iron commitments to ukraine's permanent demilitarization or beat within the framework of a nato membership. and the 1st of all, i, i'm not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness, alpha, quote unquote, with western commitments. but on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isn't it a bit like, i don't know,

it's a writer with wipers, but well behaving. mice, i mean, like, uh, even if and ukraine is the militarized and like, it's not your claim that is a problem for russia. it's beta. what, what do i do? there is a kind of press of this kind of green because it goes when um, east germany was united with west job name became a spell and you have the kind of thought nights of the agreement was the friend at that point to where it was treated rush hour, so it's unit to base restaurants, but it's only the danger and show up. but the pain was that there will be no nights or expansion into each to. i mean, it goes, have light from nature nature, then expand the trees. joe, do a cause expand it is a politics side. suppose that uh, add another country side for all precedents for the conditions on that one, on the, on the, on the on nights those night nitrogen expansion. yeah. now i think there's also a more recent precedent, that's the support the your case, the the case of tr k. a number of freshman leaders, including twitter himself, said that having trick is

a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that country, which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia. and i can see that the logic being applied to ukraine, but i struggle to understand why i would need to want ah, you know, as i've aged highly traumatized, a very lengthly angry country or whatever left of us as part of it's, you know, to realize the originally important point, the, you know, i think for the russian point of view, it's not ukraine's membership. the site doesn't match at all. i have a match old. it was, it was the nighttime military built up in the use of ukraine as a tool of choice app. absolutely. so like if you're trying to watch lift, it becomes part of a night of the under different conditions. then it's not such a, it's not such a frightening development and we asked a question about, you know, why should this issue a process of looking at the trust cost both, why see this is trust issues on both sides. and the only way to, to, well through the issue is to after might make,

make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements. they go through, you know, as the rest of the, like to say, yeah, you know, trust, but very far, but i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. why would may to want, i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram again special. but if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry intentions for rebuilding it for even providing it with someone for search. why would they need and because they're losing all the benefits of that policy, i'm assuming all the cost high. i, i think for political reasons, i mean that that's why i'm not 50 thought. yeah. my eyes. well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of night to under certain conditions that could be part of the day. i was trying to think of a lie to police equally given the what the west, the way out politically to back off from, for the threat of the war with russia,

from abrupt proxy what that but that was my kind of kind of reasoning. so i think, yeah, yeah, it would pay them no most kind of challenges and almost from all kinds of discussion, i'm sure that we play the voices that we'd like to assign a we shouldn't listen to this, but i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually to have his back on you crying completely and forever. i refused to, to allow an instant inter membership. yeah, quote processor over. so i hope you're right on that. but even though i'm, you know, to some extent it's uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. you're lying, it's no, i'm not making a prediction error or prophecy. i'm not sure what's gonna happen if i it's, i'm likely, well i, i know what's gonna happen right now because we are going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments extension the,

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the, [000:00:00;00] the welcome extra ones or parts best geoffrey roberts emeritus, professor of history university college park. now professor rubbers before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and made his logic less talk about the brain right now. and i think that's a very interesting case study because it's hard to find another country besides a few grand. that's what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental security guarantees for itself. and i mean, even israel, for example,

and other clients they is very showed about um, you know, ensuring its own base. but the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the, the calculus of kids here. yeah, i did it because this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. i mean for you to once, that is why you crime shows to close it did and on what still chooses. uh, yeah. 2 foot to a to fight on it obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations. i mean, did the motion to power as well as the political 5 you for international? that'd be one say, i think secondly, there was this um, cuz fife belief in the west, in the main wesson's bull on and on in western power. so as i typed the slide, the themselves that they could, they could, they could win this war in some, uh,

its in some form. okay. and now having tried that actually effectively last last the wall that just um they just clicking on the and waiting for something, something, something, something happened something to, to turn up beloved. um yeah, i could probably pick them up public opinion or opinion and you're trying to shift as well. well, the opinion dice i've seen is that there's a gradual shift from all of the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the the areas currently occupied by you guys who want a compromise space. i think secondly, you know, you know, the d ukrainian and the police establish normally 5 i yeah. that they're out there . all kind of elements we've been established, or maybe on the fringes of it, who will be prepared to actually that the negotiated pacing. see piece of this is a basis is made the best solution for you for x nominate them. so give me a 9 to put back to tech support will be in video of decide, let's just have a personal question that have ukrainian votes on the credit. is a very interesting collective psyche to me because i think it's has both very large

entitlement and a very large and 3 order to complex. you mentioned the, you know, the power of its national is meant to me is a little bit like me there who is the right to kill. it's on her own children because she didn't get something. and historically, i think this a few or a was channeled very convenient to move on to russia. but once you clean becomes part of the west, aren't you concerned that they so the of the target of its blames. i'll shift of what you describe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nation as of now and i know the ukraine is not particularly small side based as most i associate getting smaller one. so why is this most tight associated with a, a big state and quite often, well, you know what, you, what you described this sense of a combination of in type, since we talked about and inferior article back. very,

very typical of the nationalism. oh, i'll go out of a full size. so anyway that that's not the same. that's not unusual. but many other states, uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around, even poland. well, pulling to a lesser extent that they've been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. and this is what i want to ask you about. because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a national hardship to produce the kinds of leaves who understand the deep dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of that population. but also whereas we, enough to position the country within the regional and global context to, you know, printers, benefits for, for the people. yeah. but that's, that's what happened for you. cried was thoughtful. so for uh, you know, for the 1st 25 years of independent crime, that's exactly the game that you cried like really? yes, absolutely. until until 2014, when you get this definitive kind of split upon

a few crime ups definitively for the west and that's with the don't your sex professor roberts, i think your grand have some of the best conditions, post soviet flops. they had some of the best economies. they had pretty wide industrial base. they have a, you know, boot land. they have a lot of people. uh, they have the good graces of the west. they also have the good, have the good, the braces of russian because russian was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within, it's all been done within its economic uh, environment i'm is. yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know, stuff, something that, that, that, the, them, that those, i'd love corruption. i know so that they also kind of hide the provisions if the political divisions been by what that meant was to make you cry and never transitioned out of the ninety's. the kind of coyote politics of the ninety's continued all the way all the way for the and of course to go see the new crime that i never had a preaching trace. you covered some stability is the power of the site that you

know, some old and patrol and some, and some directors are very unfortunate set so, so concise, really. right. but going back to the point where i think that once to will, if was i, what's the most out of it? if you have what's left of your train becomes part of the west in sub for which is already above the west. and that's the construct. i've reviewed crime music, and again that's an on the west of that point that, that, that going to have a very, very different view of feeding tools to west when they see what has happened to the country that they have the full this proxy will on be around the office on be off was and if somebody shoot kind of troll the shoes, done that which huge loss of life. i'm actually, i don't say they're going to play rush from the russians like that. they're gonna blame the so called western knowledge in order to be a self sufficient country. they have to accept that the, you know, for me ones blame on, on here for me twice, blame on me. i mean,

the sooner or later they will have to extend our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny and you know, also develop some acu man and shouldn't, as in dealing with the nature of it. but do you see developing i, i'm, i maybe, maybe not, i'm not sure i'll pull up to be a self sufficient country of any kind of life. simply even the western, the lions. yeah. but, but they oh, shoot for it's really dependent cut. they need. they think they're very, at least i need to keep a desk or at least access to the desk or the probably know so the symbolic races they need to keep talk of as well. the 4 most go now in the quantity of whatever the last thing that we know that they're not there yet. but the prospect of a major military defeat for or ukrainian ministry claps, which could a fraction, a russian taking of a desperate hawk of it was all part of the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop to mean to actually coming to their senses and to enter in a, make them making the data right. i, i did get a, oh,

can you just give me up on this more rush? i'm making the necessary concessions to rush. oh, you're very, you're very good. and i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat your enemies in order to create, you know, conditions for loss and peace. it was the case both with the french and the, you know, with a gentleman says, wow, i think that's something that the, i think that's another very important part to modify the kind of argument behind. but i'm putting the rush, it should make this very shoot concession of allowing ukraine or pop you're trying to become become a member. and i to understand conditions is because i, i still russia want, has a wants to have been having an attitude. told you you prying on ukrainians as, as, as, as a people. and if that actually truth holds. fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations

with you cried new state. i'm with you. frightening people on a collaborative friend friendship. i re recreate some com, some a bunch of neighborhoods that anything, any people yes. anything got you know like that, that didn't that, that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you crying like symbolically. yes. he is quite a different thing. i mean, they hear you say they need to do something to say and like, made a membership. and what i'm arguing for is that they have to consciously or recognize ukrainian dignity. and that's if the ukrainian state is to exist as a stage, not just as a some fragment of major, but as a state. and that has some potential for self sufficiency bound, if it needs session and geographical by a by says, i have the impression that the list, the majority of russian public opinion and political repeatedly available would be on that page at okay. the minority of the russians nationalist suits the world, wants to go. thoughts of, of that. but i think that's where that,

that's where the sentiment is. michael's essential, that's one thing, strategy and politics. it is another und russia, preaching the paper. russian, people really are not going to consider the signature if it was going to compromise russia, secure, but it's not good that we can to them because it's not just about the ukraine. i mean, for russia either to rush, i kind of have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of it's had to go at the end of the day, we're all talking about a tiny or a p and secure just structure as i you written about. as you said, that is the last thing settlement of this conflict with require crating a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. and i think the russians and didn't that best trying to negotiate some way out of the predicament was made or they weren't successful. washington said, no. is there anything possibly that's good. the 1st way to change is perspective. i don't want to was. yeah, but you crying in the west, the fate in the war is it might affect you trying to. and that perspective on the

basis of your crime can become part of nights, also conditions. but that would need to be an overarching framework of common european security to act as a continuing with that. and as a 1st, i thought of guarantee, definitely, you know, football size. yeah. i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian for the, somebody's before the, i think actually been fine since the 19th to strategy to create collective european security structures. including the soviet union include including in russia, but i've always kind of like stumbled against the fundamental fact that the in the west roster is the same as a rival anatomy, an apartment and a for it. and it's quite track it is tight and it may actually take this will this tragic war to actually arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about group pricing, comments, comments, security space for professor robinson. this is going to be my last question. for that to happen, what the west will have to part with is the idea of that. you know,

it controls a balance in the world, economic, ideological cultural, everything else. and there is an opinion in russia, that's what russians are fighting against here is not just the, you know, part of europe and security structure that fighting against 500 years of western dominance, which is 1st and foremost, based on the western military and dominance. and the wishes in both the soviet union in the 20th century. and i think russian more recently has managed to not necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west degrees to any sort of negotiations with russia. what does that effect, and we mean that it's in the, over the world, the shutter is, i mean, like the, it will have to you right off i, i, that's a lot to me. so that's what you've got, what the point you just make. it brings us back to the point. you're beginning of the, the discussion way when you also we add those to the situation to take the moment.

i think it's, it's dangerous. this gets even more multi just let me fund a bunch of guess the both actors because in the west or at least a substantial since 6 of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself. on western, in germany. it's not always the self image, it says we understand though it's turn the superiority, it's a constructive less got on you crying just being there any exist to ensure that that's all the if the, if you cry lose is the night to lose, you knew right. then you're gonna lose that the nation, the, that germany on the west place of the world. and that's why the advertising, the most extreme measures to above that, the good outcome so, so that's when it comes down to it. know the fundamental obstacle that you have to any this will 1000 line with russia, always booty the what it might do it lies with, with the west. and what is it actually capable of just trying to use fundamental well for you. any septic accepting it a different, a different set of relationships with the prime refresher and in europe as

a whole movement. and uh, i would have to that, that the ultimate and what the west as the finding a guess is not the russian. it's fighting history and history. it has certain objective trends 10 that even the west can know it's and again, but the, let's leave it for some other time. it's been great talking to you again. thank you . thanks very much. thank you for watching hope to hear again on was a part of the

the hello and welcome to across the board. here we discussed some real in the, in the headlines because our growing off to international is really police raid alger 0 is office in jerusalem. off of the government decides to shut down out your zeros operations in the country. the, it is chaos on campus. as you will forward, he's attempting to break up some of the pro palestinian demonstrations that have taken root in universities, old trucks to comfort me. i thought you was connected to impress, misleading, and report to us. by the way,